According to latest 2Q 2008 Asia Pacific Property Digest research from Jones Lang LaSalle
India, 20 August 2008 - The office property markets have continued to post growth over the past few years. However, the last few quarters, have witnessed a polarization of office markets in terms of growth in demand across the country, reports Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj in its second quarter 2008 Asia Pacific Property Digest (APPD), a comprehensive quarterly report providing market update, significant trends in office markets in India.
The office markets, across six Indian cities including Mumbai, Delhi NCR, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkata, can categorized into three broad segments
(1) first segment includes markets which are likely to be “susceptible” in terms of retarded demand growth for the remaining half year of 2008.
(2) second segment includes micro markets which are “strong” in terms of maintaining demand growth for the next two quarters, and
(3) third set includes micro markets which have “high potential” in terms of improving demand growth for the rest of the year.
Anuj Puri, Chairman and Country Head, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj says, “It is interesting to note that the “high potential” office micro markets, anticipated to clock increased growth in demand, would do so essentially on the back of affordable product values, improving infrastructure and enhanced product being delivered. It is expected that over the next 8-10 quarters, such markets could witness strong pre-leasing commitments by occupiers despite robust supply pipelines, which are in place.”
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj 2Q 2008 APPD; CBD-Central Business District; SBD-Secondary Business District
In case of the susceptible markets, demand from occupiers in the IT/ITES segment, could be rationalized on the back of economic slowdown in the US. This coupled with the strong supply pipeline in many of these markets could lead to a potential consolidation in the respective markets, leading to relatively higher vacancies, although, this may not immediately manifest itself in any marked rental consolidation in such markets.
If the global economic slowdown sustains, we foresee the vacancies to rise in these micro-markets due to strong supply volumes. This might put some pressure on the rental values next year. Rental values are consolidating across all vulnerable markets, however, no major rental fall is expected in these markets this year.
Moreover, it is increasingly becoming evident over the last two quarters that micro markets which are dependent on demand from IT/ ITES occupiers, are likely to be more sensitive to the occupation cost variations as compared to those micro markets which derive demand from non IT/ITES occupiers.
This is evident from the fact that many of the CBD areas in cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Kolkata continue to enjoy captive demand from corporate occupiers mainly from BFSI, Consulting, and other service industries. The consistency in most of these office markets is also attributable in part to the relatively limited growth in the supply pipeline over the last few years.
In terms of new office supply completions in the first half year 2008 as compared to same period in the previous year (2007), it is interesting to note that the cities (including all micro markets) that have clocked the highest positive growth rate in terms of delivered supply on a year-on-year are Kolkata, Chennai, Mumbai and Delhi. In fact, Bangalore and Hyderabad are two cities which have actually posted negative growth in terms of stock completion in first half of 2008 vis-a-vis same period 2007.
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj 2Q08 APPD
A remarkable insight to note is that Hyderabad, Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Bangalore have more than half of the total expected office stock completions planned to be delivered in the remaining half of 2008. Whereas, in Kolkata the situation is just reverse, where about a third of the total stock completions are due to be delivered in the remaining half of 2008.
On the demand front, the second half of 2008 is expected to witness high pre-leasing activity in most IT SEZs and, IT parks developed by blue chip developers. While the slowdown in the IT/ITES sector is a known story, the slowdown has been only in terms of a deceleration in the estimated growth rate to 21-24% for 2008-09 vis-a-vis the recorded 28.2% growth in FY 2008. Further demand from emerging industries like pharma, biotech, semiconductor, R&D operations and logistics will top this IT/ITES demand. Thus, taking cognizance of the supply-demand scenario, the next two years will witness strengthening of the real estate office market fundamentals in terms of market behaviour, rationalisation of demand-supply, and increased consolidation.
About Jones Lang LaSalle
Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a professional services firm specializing in real estate. The firm offers integrated services delivered by expert teams worldwide to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying or investing in real estate. With 2007 global revenue of USD2.7 billion, Jones Lang LaSalle has approximately 180 offices worldwide and operates in more than 700 cities in 60 countries. The firm is an industry leader in property and corporate facility management services, with a portfolio of approximately 1.2 billion square feet worldwide. LaSalle Investment Management, the company’s investment management business, is one of the world’s largest and most diverse in real estate with more than USD54 billion of assets under management. For further information, please visit our website, http://www.joneslanglasalle.com/.
Jones Lang LaSalle has over 50 years of experience in Asia Pacific, with over 16,000 employees operating in more than 70 offices in 13 countries across the region.
About Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj
Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj, the Indian operations of Jones Lang LaSalle, is the premiere and largest real estate professional services firm in India. With an extensive geographic footprint across ten cities (Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Kochi, Chandigarh and Coimbatore) and a staff strength of over 3300, the firm provides investors, developers, local corporate and multinational companies with a comprehensive range of services including research, consultancy, transactions, project and development services, integrated facility management, property management, capital markets, residential, hotels and retail advisory. For further information, please visit www.jllm.co.in