Anuj Puri (Chairman & Country Head, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj)
We are at a defining point in the history of Indian real estate. Rarely has a business sector seen so much churn, conjecture, simultaneous pessimism, optimism and prophetic predictions in the space of just a few months.
To say the very least, these are interesting times. There has been a slowdown in Indian real estate because an amalgam of reasons - overheating of prices in certain regions, reduced liquidity among developers because of the credit crunch and a watch-and-wait stance among property buyers as they anticipate a blanket correction in the sector. This cannot be attributed solely to the credit crunch and the US recession – property and interest rates were inflated to begin with. Nevertheless, we are still given to focusing more on reasons beyond our borders than those within them. There is a currently fashionable saying making its rounds – when the US sneezes, the whole world catches cold. In the case of India, however, I beg differ.
India - and for that matter China - represent an economic scenario that has evolved separately and on very different parameters from the economies in most developed countries. It is an emerging economy, with an emerging and maturing real estate market. The fall in demand will prevail for approximately ten to twelve months, but it will not be of a magnitude comparable to that of other countries. India continues to be very attractive, but foreign investors are now justifiably awaiting greater transparency and stability.
Still, prices are doubtlessly stagnating and there may be a more generalized correction over the next one year. However, many locations and properties will continue to be in great demand. The retail and commercial space sectors have seen a major sea change on the demand side, completely redefining what is expected from the coming supply. No longer can we adhere to traditional standards of format, efficiency and location – everything is changing, ladies and gentlemen, and we must change with the times.
Our thinking must change, because the sector is changing. I cannot emphasise this enough. We are on the threshold of an awakening into the Era of Transparency. From this point in Indian real estate history onward, we will forever need to look beyond short-term profitability and concentrate on making our projects institutional quality assets through more tie-ups with international expertise.
In commercial projects, the onus is now clearly on large floor plates, workplace ambience and conformity to international sustainability standards. In fact, our thinking must now permanently reorient to global best practices and eco-friendly projects with LEEDS certification.
In the retail sector, the sad truth is that there is an oversupply situation brewing, mainly because the current supply is opportunistic and not based on actual demand. Developers are building malls in catchments where land is available, without studying existing and potential demand.
In residential real estate, most large development houses have now woken up to the fact that affordable housing projects have the fastest absorption rates and are focusing on this hitherto neglected sector. It makes both social and business sense. Business sense in terms of the volumes the market is offering that developers can cater to, and social sense because it provides buyers of economical housing more options to choose from. The demand in terms of units is phenomenal and developers getting into this segment can build for years to come.
Yes – interesting times. We are in the eye of the storm and therefore do not adequately sense the full extent of the turbulence all around us. However, the current market dynamics are already serving the required purpose – bringing about a Indian real estate Renaissance. Quality retail and commercial spaces in tune with the international blueprint are arriving, and developers are now launching housing projects for the common man as never before.
May the future begin.
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