Tuesday, December 16, 2008

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE 2009 - WHERE TO INVEST

The economic slowdown has combined with the real estate market’s inevitable efforts to assume rationality. For Indian residential space developers, the dream run is over – but for the sector’s end-users, it is a time of opportunity. Properties that would forever have stayed out of the reach of India’s less privileged middle-class denizens are about to be put on the table.

Yes, it is a buyer’s market now. Residential rates are crashing across the country. Overheated pockets in our metros and the more prominent Tier II cities are now tasting humble pie. The residential property market in India will rise again – albeit at a more realistic rate.


ON INVESTING IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO:

• Returns on commercial real estate are higher, but so is the attached risk. Such properties are also more expensive, and smaller office spaces are in low demand at the current time.
• Residential properties yield lower returns, but are safer as long as they are chosen wisely. For city-based smaller investors, investing in studio apartments or 1BHK properties near known market drivers such as IT hubs, large manufacturing units and educational institutions is the most feasible and lucrative option. Smaller format housing continues to have a steady demand, especially in the metros where company staffers seek price-effective homes on rent. Cities like Mumbai, Pune and Hyderabad are perfect illustrations. Rental accruals on such properties represent a source of stable and steady income, while the capital value will invariably appreciate with time.



PRESENT ROI ON REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

1. Delhi Residential: 7-8%, Commercial: 11-13%
2. Mumbai Residential: 7-9%, Commercial: 11-13%
3. Bangalore Residential: 6-8%, Commercial: 11.5-13.5%
4. Kolkata Residential: 6-8%, Commercial: 11-12%
5. Chennai Residential: 6-8%, Commercial: 11.5-13.5%
6. Chandigarh (incl. Mohali, Panchkula, Zirakpur)
Residential: 6-8%, Commercial: 12-14%
7. Indore Residential: 7-8%, Commercial: 12-14%
8. Cochin Residential: 5-7%, Commercial: 12-13%
9. NCR Residential: 7-8%, Commercial: 11-13%


SCOPE FOR RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS:

Certain areas in many cities retain their mid-to-long term potential. While other areas in these cities are headed for correction, these locations will hold their own and even grow:

MUMBAI

Mumbai has witnessed some of the highest selling prices in the residential market till the beginning of this year. Clearly, those prices were not sustainable, since buyers for super luxury homes are shrinking fast. One of the focal areas was central Mumbai (specifically Lower Parel and Worli) which witnessed the highest price escalations. These now faces the challenges of the slowdown.

The current slowdown has curtailed the investor segment in the residential property market. The driver for what demand exists now are real end-users. In Mumbai, there is no dearth of those desperate to find homes within an affordable range - affordable housing is therefore now the silver lining on the dark cloud of today’s slowdown.

Mumbai has three different directions in which growth can still be observed. Appreciation is not a factor currently, but these are the areas that will sustain their prices – while other areas in Mumbai will correct.

1. The extended western suburbs - the Vasai-Virar sub-region. This region is known for budget housing.

• Drivers:

1. Economic drivers such as the MP SEZ by DHL, BIO tech SEZ by Mahindra and IT SEZ
2. Connectivity is going to increase by introduction of additional suburban trains from next year

Prices are in the range of Rs. 2500-3500/sq.ft

2. The area adjoining Panvel

• Drivers:

1. This region is benefiting significantly from trunk infrastructure enhancements such as the upcoming new airport, the Trans-Harbor Link, a railway terminus, mono rail etc.
2. Positive impact from the upcoming Mega SEZs by Reliance and others.
3. The expansion of JNPT.

Many developers have already initiated large township projects in this region. The price range are Rs. 3000-3800/sq.ft.

3. Bandra-Khar area

Prime property hunters are still focused on this area.

• Drivers:

1. It will witness increased connectivity by the Bandra-Worli sea-link, the proposed Metro Line 2 and also the upcoming Santacruz-Chembur Link road.
2. This region is always a preferred destination for prime property seekers because of its elite profile, and because of the high level of available shopping, healthcare, education and recreation facilities. Developers there are offering products in redevelopment schemes.

The prices range from Rs. 18000–25000/sq.ft.

DELHI

Currently, there is a definite slowdown in growth in the suburban residential market. Construction has stopped on new projects, resulting in a stabilization of rates for ready-possession flats. This scenario also reflects in Delhi, where the rates for good properties rates are now stable.

However, the areas around the 150-meter road that will eventually connect Gurgaon to Dwarka – specifically, Sectors 103-111 – have significant growth potential.

• Drivers:

1. Sufficient developments will come up in this area, and one can expect a year-on-year appreciation of at least 5-7% even now.
2. The area is currently under-developed – however, when residential projects there reach completion in 2-3 years, the appreciation will be between 30-35%.
3. A lot of this depends on the ability of developers to raise enough cash to complete their projects. Those who do not have the requisite finances will miss out on an extremely lucrative opportunity.

The current rates in this belt range between Rs. 2200-2300/sq.ft. In Dwarka, the rates are between Rs. 4000-4500/sq.ft and in the further locations of Gurgaon between Rs. 3500-4000/sq.ft.


CHENNAI

Chennai’s residential real estate scenario is considerably depressed at the current time. Developers who have projects along the once booming IT corridor are all set to reduce their rates by as much as 20%.

However, the Mogappair-Porur composite region continues to hold mid-to-long term investment potential.
• Drivers:

1. This overall location is very close to the prime residential catchment of Anand Nagar and also to Chennai railway station and the bus terminus.
2. The fact that it is not near the IT corridor also increases its potential.
3. The rates there are competitive at Rs. 2800-3000/sq.ft.

The expected appreciation for residential properties here is between 20-30% long term).


BANGALORE

Bangalore is surely feeling the brunt of the IT slowdown. However, established suburban areas like Koramangala, Outer Ring Road and Bellari Road continue to be good investment destinations. As in the case of Mumbai, appreciation is not a focal point in the current scenario - these are the areas that will sustain their prices, while other will correct.

Apart from these, Mysore Road –which encompasses the upcoming NICE corridor, has lots of future promise thanks to good connectivity to Mysore and many commercial developments being planned there.

Koramangala

• Drivers:

1. No scope for fresh developments
2. Close to Electronics City
3. Residential demand is high

Rates are between Rs. 7000-8000/sq.ft.

Outer Ring Road and Bellari Road

• Drivers:

1. Close to IT hub
2. Outer Ring Road is close to Whitefield and is a commercial area.
3. New developments are coming up on Bellari Road, which is also close to the Devenhalli airport.

Rates – Rs. 3500 – 5500/sq.ft. Appreciation potential between 5-8% short term. Long term 10-15%.


PUNE

With Talegaon not picking up in the anticipated manner, Pune’s new growth corridor now encompasses Kharadi and Nagar Road. This can be safely considered as the most lucrative real estate investment zone for 2009-2010.

• Drivers:

1) Eon IT Park – 4 million square feet of prime IT space in the last stages of completion
2) Other IT SEZs as well as commercial ventures also on the anvil
3) Proximity to revamped airport
4) Improved connectivity, largely via the opening of the VIP Road connecting Viman Nagar to the airport
5) Imminent arrival of 5-star hotels such as JW Marriott, Grand Hyatt and Leela
6) Reasonably low entry costs:

Rates – Rs. 2700-3500/sq.ft


HYDERABAD

Hyderabad continues to hold its own in the current slowdown scenario, though significant growth has now been restricted to certain specific areas.

Residential real estate investment growth potential in Hyderabad will center primarily around Gachibowli and Tellapur.

• Drivers:

1) Proximity to the financial district, which is where the highest growth of IT and other commercial projects is happening
2) Could become another CBD over the next ten years
3) Outer Ring Road (Phase 1 in advanced stage, phase 2 scheduled after six months) in the vicinity will reduce commuting time of residents to key workplace locations

Rs. 3000-3500/sq.ft.

Appreciation in these areas will be about 5% in 2009 and might increase in further years.


MOHALI

Residential rates at Chandigarh have gone through the roof, and there is little scope for appreciation for now. Moreover, because Chandigarh is a planned city conceived on certain density specifications, which give rise to limitations on development. It is therefore not dynamic in real estate terms, which means it will not change much with time.

Chandigarh could not partake in the IT boom for these reasons. However, adjoining Mohali presents a completely different picture. The area called Greater Mohali, which encompasses the fast-developing Landra-Mohali Road area, is a very promising residential nexus. Pan India developers such as Unitech, Emaar-MGF, Ansals and DLF have snapped up land there for development into mega, multi-sector residential hubs. These will be highly organized cluster projects, and all the right drivers are in place:

• Drivers:

1) International airport coming up
2) Indian Business School coming up
3) Multi-terminal bus stand soon to be commissioned
4) 120 acre township with IT SEZ coming up

The investment opportunity here is in land, which currently sells at between Rs. 12000-14000/square yard. After 3-4 years, the land rates in these areas will surpass those in central Mohali, which currently stand at Rs. 30000-35000/square yard.


KOCHI

Kochi has the fast growing residential market in Kerala. The NRI investments has caused sudden spurt in residential demand in Kochi City. Apartment units have the highest demand owing to affordable prices and availability. In addition, high ranking of Kochi as IT/ITES destinations which resulted in demand generated by the infrastructure initiatives like the Smart City Project, Cyber City project, Infopark, International Transshipment Container Terminal Project, etc. Water fronts are the most sought out residential real estate destinations and usually gets a premium.

The prime residential areas adjacent to M.G. Road and along Marine Drive still command a premium with landmark projects asking for Rs. 7500/sq.ft

• Drivers:

1) Close to CBD
2) Attractive Water fronts
3) Huge demand for waterfront apartments

Peripheral areas of the city such as Kakkanad, Edapally and Kalamassery currently face a short-term oversupply of mid-range flats that are selling in the Rs. 2,500-3,000/sq.ft range.

• Drivers:

1) Close to the existing InfoPark
2) Positive impact from the upcoming Proposed Smart city and Cyber city in Kakkand
3) Solid infrastructure has lead to a diverse and robust economy and job creation. Commercial trade, a traditional sector of the economy, is being complemented by growing sectors such as IT/ITES (due to large scale IT parks and SEZ), BFSI activity and tourism.
4) Excellent connectivity resulting from a combination of airport, sea port, road and rail, has positioned the city for long term growth and competitive advantage.
5) A disproportionately large number of NRIs, or non-resident Keralites to be more specific, are investing from abroad and have increased demand for residential space.

Appreciation in the peripheral areas of the city will be about 5% in 2009. We expect a 5-10% increase over the long term.

Rates - Rs. 2,500-3500/sq.ft.


AHMEDABAD

Ahmedabad, which has recently started leveraging its real estate potential for ‘real’ now, has some real residential hotspots coming up. For instance, there will be considerable economic activity with the arrival of the Tata Nano project, which will definitely boost the value of real estate in and around the corridor of Sanand.

• Drivers:

1) Located in an industrial region rich with SEZs
2) NANO plant coming up
3) Infrastructure upgradation in process
4) Good connectivity due to S G Highway and SP Ring Road
5) Good land availability
6) DMIC investment region
7) Low land prices (Rs. 650/sq.ft)

Some of the reputed developers active in this region include Pacifica Sahara, Savvy and Safal. Residential units are primarily villas, selling at rates between Rs. 2600-3000/sq.ft.

Prahlad Nagar is another good area to consider. It is surrounded by premium areas, has a high income population and the prices are still relatively low. It is also close to the new business district on SG Highway and has good connectivity to the core city. Rates range between Rs. 2300-3000/sq.ft

One should also mention the Sabarmati-Gandhinagar highway, which is close to the airport and Gandhinagar as well as the upcoming GIFT city and Ecopolis, has good connectivity and infrastructure and will soon see many institute campuses like NID, IIT and DAIICT coming up.

JAIPUR

Jaipur has witnessed some of the best-planned and balanced real estate developments in commercial, retail and residential space. While affected by the current slowdown, Jaipur still manages to sail through on account of its growing population and sound purchasing power. After all, residential real estate in Jaipur is primarily driven by the demand from its existing population, which is now expanding the city beyond its present limits. While residential projects within central locations of the city have witnessed high absorption, the city seems to be expanding towards two new prime destinations for residential development.

Two key destinations with the highest investment potential in residential real estate include Ajmer Road and Jagatpura (both suburban locations).

Ajmer Road (NH-8)

• Drivers

1) Availability of land parcels to support large expansive townships as against low land availability within city limits
2) Low land prices
3) Proximity to Mahindra World City; Mahindra’s SEZ being developed close to Ajmer Road having campus developments by Wipro, Infosys, Deutche Bank, among others; this makes the region a potential business hub of the future
4) Rapid connectivity to neighboring towns of Rajasthan as well as the prime city of Jaipur with NH-8
5) Presence of numerous townships being developed by established developers like Vatika, Omaxe, Ansal among others provide multiple options for sound investment

Rates - Rs 2500-3000/sq.ft.

Jagatpura

• Drivers

1) Proximity to South Jaipur, the hub of upcoming institutional, commercial and retail developments. The location is also close to the new airport coming up, which provides good connectivity
2) Availability of land parcels to support large expansive townships as against low land availability within city limits
3) Low land price points and entry costs attracting good investor interest
4) Rapid residential development accruing to large number of townships and group housing projects and townships in and around the area
5) An upcoming destination as a residential hub, with a large concentration of government housing projects as well; a new expansion zone for the city population

Rates - Rs 2000-2500/sq.ft.

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